Macau’s daily casino gross gaming revenue came to about MOP729 million for the October 5–11 period, the first full week after National Day Golden Week, according to UBS channel checks cited by iGaming Today. That is above September’s daily average but below the pace brokers expect for the whole month. The slowdown from the holiday peak leaves the October recovery uncertain and suggests the full-month consensus may be hard to reach.
Holiday momentum gives way to lower weekly pace
UBS estimated that Macau’s casinos averaged roughly MOP1.0 billion per day during the first four days of October, when Golden Week traffic was strongest. The following week, the daily rate fell to about MOP729 million. That figure still exceeded the MOP602 million daily average UBS cited for September, a month when gross gaming revenue declined 1.2 percent year over year. Over the first 11 days of the month, the average stood at approximately MOP836 million per day, helped by the holiday spike.
Consensus forecast demands faster run-rate
Broker estimates compiled by UBS point to an average of around MOP777 million per day for all of October, roughly unchanged from a year earlier. To hit that level, the remaining 20 days would need to produce about MOP744 million per day, UBS said. That is higher than the MOP729 million average reported for October 5–11. UBS described the full-month goal as difficult, pointing to current market constraints and little opportunity for near-term margin growth, according to Soloazar. Whether Macau can clear that bar remains an open question, since the latest weekly average is below the required level.
2025 storm and festival ease year-ago comparison
UBS noted that the year-over-year comparison for early October was influenced by events in 2025. A typhoon on October 5 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 disrupted last year’s figures, creating a lower base. Because the reporting windows also differ slightly—11 days this year against 12 days last year—the comparison is not perfectly aligned. Still, the bank said the opening stretch of October 2026 produced a higher daily average than the same period in 2025.
Mass and VIP show month-over-month gains
UBS estimated that the daily mass-market revenue run-rate rose 35 percent to 38 percent from September, while the daily VIP volume run-rate increased 40 percent to 45 percent. VIP hold was in a range of 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent. Even with these improvements, the bank said high-end play remained a concern, partly because of Chinese individual income tax rules for offshore trusts and related tax clawback worries. Those issues were previously tied to September’s softness in premium segments.
Brokerage expects earnings margin squeeze
Beyond October revenue tracking, CLSA has projected a year-over-year drop in sector EBITDA of 11 percent to US$1.84 billion, equivalent to MOP14.87 billion, for the quarter ended September. The bank attributes the pressure to rising operational overhead and higher commission payouts that outpaced gross gaming revenue. CLSA also expects commission and rebate expenses to climb to 20.7 percent of gaming revenue from 18.6 percent previously. That margin squeeze is separate from the October revenue question but adds to a broader picture of cost constraints in the Macau market.
